Iowa caucus a primer: the candidates part 2

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Iowa caucus a primer: the candidates part 2

T&A1987 T&A1987
apparently there's a limit to how many characters are allowed per post, so here's the rest of the candidates.


Rick Perry: The governor of Texas for the last ten years, Lieutenant Governor under George W. Bush and former agricultural commissioner. Perry’s support exploded in Iowa when he announced, crashed when he opened his mouth at the debates and has since stabilized in the low double digits. Given that he has the most precinct leaders (supporters allowed to make speeches at the caucus sites) of any candidates and enough money for a good Get Out The Vote (GOTV) operation and money for ads he might pull out a good showing. A fourth place showing above Newt and Bachmann will be a victory, anything better, a godsend. Fivethiryeight suggests his vote range is between a low of 4% of the vote and high of 18%.


Mitt Romney: Former governor of Massachusetts, a candidate for president in 2008 and in most metrics the frontrunner for the nomination. Romney has more endorsements than any of candidate, more money, a better organization and a thin lead in the Iowa polls, as well as national polls. This belies the fact that Romney has struggled to garner more than 25% of the vote in any national poll, or any Iowa poll. There is a strong current of anti-Romney sentiment that has propelled 6 other candidates to the front of the Iowa polls. This is evident in Iowa as he has approvals barely above water, at 48% favorable 44% unfavorable. Romney’s coalition is primarily Republicans and seniors, both key constituencies of the Republican Party, who are more likely to participate in Tuesday’s caucus. With five other candidates splitting the anti-Romney vote, he could emerge victorious with only 25-32% of the vote, but Fivethiryeight also calculates that Romney could receive as little as 12%. This, while very unlikely, would be a colossal failure as Romney has stated many times that he’s in to win Iowa and there’s no way to spin anything else as anything but a loss. A loss is certainly possible as more moderate, or percieved moderate candidates tend to underperform their polling averages in the Iowa caucuses.


Rick Santorum: Santorum is a two term senator from Pennsylvania who has focused his campaign on social issues, such as the sanctity of marriage and pro-life causes. Santorum is also a slang term for a mixture of fecal matter and lubricant, which occurs during anal sex. It was popularized by columnist Dan Savage and is the first thing that comes up when Googling “Santorum.”

Santorum has focused on Iowa and evangelical voters since he first began his campaign, essentially betting everything on one state. While Santorum had laid the groundwork to a strong finish, he has a wide campaign infrastructure throughout the state, has visited all 99 counties and has run one of the more traditional retail campaigns, he has not done well in the polls. Throughout the entire campaign, he was the only person who did not enjoy a spot in first place, or even a surge of momentum. Until now.

Santorum began surging last week, when a CNN poll showed him in third place with 15%, while other polls had Santorum at 10%. This is quite possibly due to the fact that the CNN poll did not survey independents or Democrats who are allowed to vote in the caucus. This, possibly inaccurate poll has lit the campaign kindling he laid out to create legitimate momentum being noticed in every poll released since the CNN poll. He’s leading, or surging with evangelical voters, republican voters and voters who consider themselves tea party members.

For voters who want an alternative to Romney and Paul, Santorum is the clear choice as he’s in third and surging. He has a further advantage in the fact that he’s ideologically similar to Perry, Gingrich and Bachmann, but is more popular. Santorum is viewed favorably by 60% of Iowa caucus goers, while viewed unfavorably by only 30% making him more popular than any other candidate. Santorum stands to benefit from supporters of Perry, Gingrich and Bachmann who want a socially conservative candidate, but know their candidate can’t win, so they’ll defect.

If he wins the nomination, Santorum may come into trouble with the general electorate as he has compared gay sex to man on dog sex, has called for a federal anti-gay marriage amendment which would invalidate existing gay marriages and when Googled, his name brings up a mixture of fecal matter and lubricant.
01/02/2012
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badk1tty badk1tty
Quote:
Originally posted by T&A1987
apparently there's a limit to how many characters are allowed per post, so here's the rest of the candidates.


Rick Perry: The governor of Texas for the last ten years, Lieutenant Governor under George W. Bush and former ...
Blerg. And here I thought this would be the one place I was save from politics
01/02/2012
T&A1987 T&A1987
Quote:
Originally posted by badk1tty
Blerg. And here I thought this would be the one place I was save from politics
sorry, i tried to be more analytical and less political (although it's hard to resist santorum jokes). With Iowa tomorrow i thought some nonpolitical, casual observers might be interested.
01/02/2012
El-Jaro El-Jaro
Talking politics is ok, encouraged even...as long as everyone follows the Expectations of Conduct and stays relaxed and groovy.

As a more left leaning guy, I hope Santorum gets the nod...Obama shouldn't have a hard time defeating him at all.
01/03/2012
Total posts: 4
Unique posters: 3