this is part of a series I decided to post here. This is a quick primer of the candidates, running for president and how they're doing in the Iowa caucuses. the candidates are listed alphabetically and tomorrow I'll describe the caucus process.
Michele Bachmann. Bachmann is a two term congresswoman from the 6th district of Minnesota. In most polls she is either in last place, or next to last place after Jon Huntsman (described below) who is not competing in Iowa. Bachmann has bet everything on Iowa, emphasizing Iowa as the place of her birth as well as her regional connection as a Minnesota politician. Despite this however, after August, when she won the straw poll, she did not spent any money on advertising until today. Further, she has been struggling to fundraise. Unless Bachmann does much better than expected, at least a third place finish, she will likely drop out Tuesday night, or Wednesday morning. She has announced her intentions to continue to South Carolina, but this is likely bravado meant to reassure her supporters.
Newt Gingrich: Newt is the former Speaker of the House from 1995-1999. Shortly after announcing his candidacy in June, he rejected the Medicare proposal introduced by Paul Ryan, which would have turned Medicare into a voucher system, rather than the current system. Following this, he left for a Grecian vacation, during which most of his key staff abandoned the campaign. Six months later, after the withdrawal of Herman Cain, Newt’s poll numbers soared. A concerted attack on Newt by the Romney and Paul campaigns destroyed Newt’s favorable ratings and poll numbers in Iowa. His numbers are currently stabilized at 14% of the vote in Iowa and 40/54 favorable/unfavorable ratings. He admitted earlier today that he will not win Iowa, but said just a few hours ago that he’s heading for an upset win. The new strategy, should he fail to win Iowa, is to “rip Romney a new one” in New Hampshire and finish him off in South Carolina.
Jon Huntsman: Jon Huntsman is the former governor of Utah and ambassador to China under President Obama and he served under Reagan and George H. W. Bush as a staff assistant, deputy secretary of commerce and ambassador to Singapore. He thinks he has a sense of humor, but does not. Huntsman is not competing in Iowa, as he is a more moderate (or seemingly moderate) candidate and has been focusing his efforts on New Hampshire. Look for him to finish in last place, or second to last. On the off chance he comes in fourth, or third, expect him and possibly the media to claim momentum.
Ron Paul: a multi-term congressman from the 14th district of Texas, Ron Paul ran for president in 1988 as a libertarian and again in 2008 as a republican. He has since built a passionate following that has him in a statistical tie for first with Mitt Romney. On the plus side, Paul has a great organization, plenty of money and a passionate group of supporters. Further, more conservative candidates tend to over preform their polls. His problems are that his supporters are not those most likely to attend a caucus. His coalition is primarily Democrats and independents who are voting in the caucus, as well as voters under 25. Normally this would be a failing coalition, but after then Senator Obama was able to win with a similar coalition, independents, young people and Republicans, in 2008 it looks possible that Paul could win. Another problem is that in recent polls he has been back sliding, but because of his unique coalition, looks unlikely to finish outside of the top two. If the turnout is in line with past caucuses, around 80,000-100,00 Paul will likely come in second, but if turnout is up, closer to 120,000 it will mean he got his voters to the polls and he’ll likely win.
Michele Bachmann. Bachmann is a two term congresswoman from the 6th district of Minnesota. In most polls she is either in last place, or next to last place after Jon Huntsman (described below) who is not competing in Iowa. Bachmann has bet everything on Iowa, emphasizing Iowa as the place of her birth as well as her regional connection as a Minnesota politician. Despite this however, after August, when she won the straw poll, she did not spent any money on advertising until today. Further, she has been struggling to fundraise. Unless Bachmann does much better than expected, at least a third place finish, she will likely drop out Tuesday night, or Wednesday morning. She has announced her intentions to continue to South Carolina, but this is likely bravado meant to reassure her supporters.
Newt Gingrich: Newt is the former Speaker of the House from 1995-1999. Shortly after announcing his candidacy in June, he rejected the Medicare proposal introduced by Paul Ryan, which would have turned Medicare into a voucher system, rather than the current system. Following this, he left for a Grecian vacation, during which most of his key staff abandoned the campaign. Six months later, after the withdrawal of Herman Cain, Newt’s poll numbers soared. A concerted attack on Newt by the Romney and Paul campaigns destroyed Newt’s favorable ratings and poll numbers in Iowa. His numbers are currently stabilized at 14% of the vote in Iowa and 40/54 favorable/unfavorable ratings. He admitted earlier today that he will not win Iowa, but said just a few hours ago that he’s heading for an upset win. The new strategy, should he fail to win Iowa, is to “rip Romney a new one” in New Hampshire and finish him off in South Carolina.
Jon Huntsman: Jon Huntsman is the former governor of Utah and ambassador to China under President Obama and he served under Reagan and George H. W. Bush as a staff assistant, deputy secretary of commerce and ambassador to Singapore. He thinks he has a sense of humor, but does not. Huntsman is not competing in Iowa, as he is a more moderate (or seemingly moderate) candidate and has been focusing his efforts on New Hampshire. Look for him to finish in last place, or second to last. On the off chance he comes in fourth, or third, expect him and possibly the media to claim momentum.
Ron Paul: a multi-term congressman from the 14th district of Texas, Ron Paul ran for president in 1988 as a libertarian and again in 2008 as a republican. He has since built a passionate following that has him in a statistical tie for first with Mitt Romney. On the plus side, Paul has a great organization, plenty of money and a passionate group of supporters. Further, more conservative candidates tend to over preform their polls. His problems are that his supporters are not those most likely to attend a caucus. His coalition is primarily Democrats and independents who are voting in the caucus, as well as voters under 25. Normally this would be a failing coalition, but after then Senator Obama was able to win with a similar coalition, independents, young people and Republicans, in 2008 it looks possible that Paul could win. Another problem is that in recent polls he has been back sliding, but because of his unique coalition, looks unlikely to finish outside of the top two. If the turnout is in line with past caucuses, around 80,000-100,00 Paul will likely come in second, but if turnout is up, closer to 120,000 it will mean he got his voters to the polls and he’ll likely win.
