Amateur porn has definitely undermined a good deal of the adult industry, but you need to bear in mind that a lot of people don't like amateur porn and though it's cheaper, there are plenty that will shell a couple bucks to watch people who are paid to stay in shape and have sex well. So yeah, I think as long as they keep up with the internet "craze," they should be fine.

Tube sites have more or less gutted the industry from a financial standpoint. Porn as a business will surely survive, but it will look fairly different.

As of now, one company (Manwin) owns & operates many of the bigger-name studios (Wicked, Digital Playground, Brazzers). Lots of smaller companies will die out; older, bigger studios will likely (but not necessarily) hang on. Companies that began as websites will become the new standard-bearers as physical distribution winds down. With less money to go around, porn companies will be more conservative, taking fewer risks on new talent. Would-be porn performers will end up hustling a lot harder to make the same money on cam sites/clips4sale/etc.

So, big porn companies will continue to exist, but they will look a lot more like the record industry, post-piracy.

Or I could be totally off-base.

Well I'm one of those people who hates amateur porn. I'd rather spend money on good films (I'm a big fan of Digital Playground) and will continue to do so regardless of how many free amateur sites pop up.

I think some companies can stay in business by offering something the free sites can't: focusing on quality over quantity. If they put out consistently good stuff and built themselves a loyal fan base, they'll stay in business.

I do have love for Kink.com. They make great stuff, a wide variety (within their niche), their pay scale is transparent, and they seem to be responsible. And they're successful. Hooray for them!

As for DVD, it'll probably hang on for a while, but I just think that the portion of the adult audience that wants physical media isn't enough to support the costs of replication and distribution for more than a handful of companies. Especially when downloadable/streaming video can offer higher video quality for the people who are even still willing to pay for porn.

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Its just a matter of time.